Estimating Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value is an all-important concept that offers the only logical approach to evaluating the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses. Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life.

The calculation of intrinsic value, though, is not so simple. As our definition suggests, intrinsic value is an estimate rather than a precise figure, and it is additionally an estimate that must be changed if interest rates move or forecasts of future cash flows are revised. Two people looking at the same set of facts, moreover – and this would apply even to Charlie and me – will almost inevitably come up with at least slightly different intrinsic value figures. That is one reason we never give you our estimates of intrinsic value.

– Warren Buffett

Betting On What Is Stable

I very frequently get the question: ‘What’s going to change in the next 10 years?’ And that is a very interesting question; it’s a very common one. I almost never get the question: ‘What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?’ And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two — because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time. … [I]n our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that’s going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection. It’s impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, ‘Jeff I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher,’ [or] ‘I love Amazon; I just wish you’d deliver a little more slowly.’ Impossible. And so the effort we put into those things, spinning those things up, we know the energy we put into it today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from now. When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it.

– Jeff Bezos

Ten Attributes Of Great Fundamental Investors

Ten Attributes Of Great Fundamental Investors:

  1. Be numerate (and understand accounting)
  2. Understand value (the present value of free cash flow)
  3. Properly assess strategy (or how a business makes money)
  4. Compare effectively (expectations versus fundamentals)
  5. Think probabilistically (there are few sure things)
  6. Update your views effectively (beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected)
  7. Beware of behavioral biases (minimizing constraints to good thinking)
  8. Know the difference between information and influence
  9. Position sizing (maximizing the payoff from edge)
  10. Read (and keep an open mind)

– Michael Mauboussin