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The public has a distorted view of science because children are taught in school that science is a collection of firmly established truths. In fact, science is not a collection of truths. It is a continuing exploration of mysteries.

– Freeman Dyson

As a good rule of thumb, proprietary technology must be at least 10 times better than its closest substitute in some important dimension to lead to a real monopolistic advantage. Anything less than an order of magnitude better will probably be perceived as a marginal improvement and will be hard to sell, especially in an already crowded market.

– Peter Thiel, Zero To One

Superior investment performance is not our primary goal. But superior performance with less-than commensurate risk above average gains in good times are not proof of a manager’s skill. It takes superior performance in bad times to prove that those good-time gains were earned through skill, not simply the acceptance of above average risk.

– Howard Marks

The harder we try with the conscious will to do something, the less we shall succeed. Proficiency and results come only to those who have learned the paradoxical art of doing and not doing, or combining relaxation with activity

– Aldous Huxley

If what you’re working on/funding would’ve gotten made/funded easily without you, what you’re doing is more zero-sum — you’re just trying to get in for the ride. If the thing wouldn’t exist without your support and you’re providing capital where it is scarce, that feels a lot more productive.

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Surely, in the light of history, it is more intelligent to hope rather than to fear, to try rather than not to try. For one thing we know beyond all doubt: Nothing has ever been achieved by the person who says, ‘It can’t be done.’

– Eleanor Roosevelt

There are three steps to the Expectations Investing process, which are very logical… number one is understand price implied expectations. What we’re doing is using a sound cash flow model, so we’re mimicking first principles. But in this case, we’re not forecasting what we believe. We’re essentially asking, “what is priced into today’s stock?” Now we can be guided by things like consensus forecast, there’s certainly a component of art in this. But you’re basically saying, “what do I need to believe to justify today’s stock price?” By the way, this is best done with you being agnostic…the second step is identifying expectations opportunities and that’s going to have a couple components. The first is understanding historical results, then you’re going to do your strategy analysis and… figure out which trigger matters the most… and then the final step is just make buy and sell decisions. If you’re doing that last step properly, you’re going to have these outcomes and probabilities associated with them that allows us to estimate expected value and that allows us then to buy at a discount to that which is where we get margin of safety.

– Michael Mauboussin

If you just sit and observe, you will see how restless your mind is. If you try to calm it, it only makes it worse, but over time it does calm, and when it does, there’s room to hear more subtle things – that’s when your intuition starts to blossom and you start to see things more clearly and be in the present more. Your mind just slows down, and you see a tremendous expanse in the moment. You see so much more than you could see before. It’s a discipline; you have to practice it.

– Steve Jobs

To understand the future, you do not need technoautistic jargon, obsession with “killer apps,” these sort of things. You just need the following: some respect for the past, some curiosity about the historical record, a hunger for the wisdom of the elders, and a grasp of the notion of “heuristics,” these often unwritten rules of thumb that are so determining of survival. In other words, you will be forced to give weight to things that have been around, things that have survived.

– Nassim Taleb