The system that regards esthetics as irrelevant, which separates the artist from his product, which fragments the work of the individual, which creates by committee, and which makes mincemeat of the creative process will, in the long run, diminish not only the product but the maker as well.
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Diminishing The Maker
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Falsifiability
As Karl Popper pointed out, the problem with the Marxist theory of historical materialism was that you couldn’t disprove it. Any scientific theory is susceptible to disproof: something could happen that would show it to be untrue. But there isn’t anything that would disprove Marxism – the Marxist can always say ‘the conditions for revolution weren’t right, but just wait, it will come next century’.
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Innovators, Imitators, Idiots
First come the innovators, who see opportunities that others don’t. Then come the imitators, who copy what the innovators have done. And then come the idiots, whose avarice undoes the very innovations they are trying to use to get rich.
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Knowing One’s Values
It’s not hard to make decisions when you know what your values are.
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Getting To The Essence
The best startups today don’t change people’s needs, they just get to the very essence of them. e.g.: Transportation vs car ownership.
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Being Early
If we came in at the beginning of an era we had a better chance ultimately to achieve growth and leadership in the field.
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Profitable Ideas
When not one hand goes up in a room full of VCs, go there. It is going to be profitable.
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A Real Margin Of Safety
Students of financial history can point to historic levels of valuation to suggest that we are in a bubble. But students of psychology may be needed to complete the picture. For one thing, the financial markets have been so strong for so long that fear of market risk has mostly evaporated. People who used to hold bank certificates of deposit now maintain a portfolio of growth stocks. It is not really within human nature to comprehend that you may not know everything you think you know, and, further, that what you believe in could change on a dime. When your investments are backstopped by reasonably-priced tangible assets, the prospect of a change in sentiment is not very costly. If a building is no longer needed as a furniture retailer, maybe it would make a good warehouse. If you can’t make money as a distributor, you can recover most of your capital by reselling your inventory.
Not so for dreams. With more and more of the market value of U.S. equities represented by lofty (in some cases infinite) multiples of current results, a change in sentiment could wipe out a large percentage of investor net worth. Sentiment, existing only in the minds of investors, is subject to change quickly and without notice. Perhaps today’s dreams will become realities for some of the current Internet and technology favorites; and perhaps not. For many, the dream will be replaced by a nightmare. Then, the escalating bill for betting on dreams rather than on realities will have to be paid up.
Real value, of bricks and mortar, finished goods inventories, accounts receivable, operating factories and businesses, and even brand names, is hard, although far from impossible, to destroy. If you don’t overpay for it, your downside is protected. If you purchase it at a discount, you have a real margin of safety.
– Seth Klarman, June 1999
