Everyone’s forecasts are, on average, consensus forecasts. If your prediction is consensus too, it won’t produce above-average performance even if it’s right. Superior performance comes from accurate non-consensus forecasts. But because most forecasters aren’t terrible, the actual results fall near the consensus most of the time – non-consensus forecasts are usually wrong…The problem is that extraordinary performance comes only from correct non-consensus forecasts, but non-consensus forecasts are hard to make, hard to make correctly and hard to act on.
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